Living by Risk Factors can Cause Confusion.
April 2nd 2007 02:28
Most of the medical information about health that we hear is technically about risk factors. That is, when we are told that smoking ‘causes’ cancer (especially lung cancer) what is meant is that smoking is a risk factor for lung cancer. This means that there is better than 1 chance is 100 that if you smoke you are X number of times more likely to get lung cancer than if you don’t smoke. (In this case the X is lots of times!)
Does this mean that you won’t get lung cancer if you don’t smoke? No. It just means you are less likely too. It also means that there will always be someone who gets away with it. Why? Simply because the odds don’t come up for that person.
Risk factors are the only truly valid way for science to talk about what ‘causes’ you to get sick. Eg. going out in a cold rain in your underwear is a very large risk factor for picking up a cold. Does this ‘cause’ you to get a cold? Sort of. But then some people do this and get away with it. So ‘cause’ isn’t 100% here. There’s lots of other things that ‘cause’ the cold: what germs happen to be around, how healthy you are in general, how soon you get in and get warm and so on. To state all these ‘causes’ would be almost impossible (it would also be tedious and useless for most people most of the time). So talking about the risk factors make sense.
The problem is when this particular sense of ‘cause’ (as more likely to - is a risk of) is confused with our usual sense of cause (which is stricter – if you do this then something inevitably follows). This leads to us feeling confused (and maybe jealous and resentful) when someone who does all the wrong things doesn’t suffer the consequences that most people do. We want to know what is different about them. Unfortunately the only difference may be luck. They took a big risk and were lucky (this time or so far).
Statistics aren’t fun, but they are the way we assess our risk. And risk factors are the way that most information about health is communicated. Once you know this you can go looking for more specific information – and find out how big the risk is. For instance, smoking increases your chances of getting lung cancer many times (hundreds of per cent). But here statistics get tricky. It may be that something increases the risk of you getting something 100%. This is a doubling of the chance (it doesn’t mean you will definitely get it). And if the chance was only one in a million to start with if the chance becomes one in five hundred thousand you may decide that it is a chance well worth taking. You may not too – but at least you will know what the risk is.
So, be aware of the different meanings of ‘cause’. It will stop you feeling unrealistically safe (because I haven’t I won’t get . . .) or unrealistically nervous (because I have done, I will inevitably get . . . ). You can also the go looking for good information about what the odds are and so make a better informed and more realistic choice.
Does this mean that you won’t get lung cancer if you don’t smoke? No. It just means you are less likely too. It also means that there will always be someone who gets away with it. Why? Simply because the odds don’t come up for that person.
Risk factors are the only truly valid way for science to talk about what ‘causes’ you to get sick. Eg. going out in a cold rain in your underwear is a very large risk factor for picking up a cold. Does this ‘cause’ you to get a cold? Sort of. But then some people do this and get away with it. So ‘cause’ isn’t 100% here. There’s lots of other things that ‘cause’ the cold: what germs happen to be around, how healthy you are in general, how soon you get in and get warm and so on. To state all these ‘causes’ would be almost impossible (it would also be tedious and useless for most people most of the time). So talking about the risk factors make sense.
The problem is when this particular sense of ‘cause’ (as more likely to - is a risk of) is confused with our usual sense of cause (which is stricter – if you do this then something inevitably follows). This leads to us feeling confused (and maybe jealous and resentful) when someone who does all the wrong things doesn’t suffer the consequences that most people do. We want to know what is different about them. Unfortunately the only difference may be luck. They took a big risk and were lucky (this time or so far).
Statistics aren’t fun, but they are the way we assess our risk. And risk factors are the way that most information about health is communicated. Once you know this you can go looking for more specific information – and find out how big the risk is. For instance, smoking increases your chances of getting lung cancer many times (hundreds of per cent). But here statistics get tricky. It may be that something increases the risk of you getting something 100%. This is a doubling of the chance (it doesn’t mean you will definitely get it). And if the chance was only one in a million to start with if the chance becomes one in five hundred thousand you may decide that it is a chance well worth taking. You may not too – but at least you will know what the risk is.
So, be aware of the different meanings of ‘cause’. It will stop you feeling unrealistically safe (because I haven’t I won’t get . . .) or unrealistically nervous (because I have done, I will inevitably get . . . ). You can also the go looking for good information about what the odds are and so make a better informed and more realistic choice.
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